POLI 330N Week 5 Assignment: Current Event – Totalitarian Restrictions or Ethnic Conflict

Grace J.
August 8, 2025August 8, 2025
CU BSN, POLI-330N

Student Name

Chamberlain University

POLI-330: Political Science

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Date

Week 5 Assignment: Current Event – Totalitarian Restrictions or Ethnic Conflict

Why Has the Ethiopian Government Initiated a Military Campaign Against Its Own Citizens?

In recent developments, Ethiopia has witnessed a resurgence of violence stemming from long-standing ethnic tensions. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, launched a military offensive in the Tigray region, igniting questions over the rationale behind targeting a segment of its population. The primary trigger was a reported attack by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s Northern Command base in Tigray. The government framed this incident as an act of rebellion and responded with a full-scale military campaign. This move raises concerns about whether such actions are a path to restoring national unity or a precursor to widespread ethnic warfare that could spill into neighboring regions and destabilize the broader Horn of Africa (Farole, 2020).

Background on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)

What is the Political Structure of Ethiopia and How Has TPLF Influenced It?

Ethiopia is governed under an ethnic federalism model, which divides the country into ethnically defined regional states. There are nine regional states and two chartered cities, each with the autonomy to govern according to its ethnic majority. The Tigray region, located in northern Ethiopia, is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Tigrayans and was historically governed by the TPLF. The TPLF played a dominant role in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a four-party coalition that ruled the country for nearly three decades.

However, tensions escalated when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed proposed to dissolve the EPRDF in favor of a new pan-Ethiopian “Prosperity Party.” The TPLF rejected this proposal, interpreting it as a threat to regional autonomy. This rejection further isolated Tigray from the central government, fueling hostilities that culminated in open conflict in November 2020. Since then, infrastructure such as telecommunications, transport, and banking services has been severely disrupted, displacing thousands and causing a dire humanitarian crisis.

Impacts of the Tigray Conflict

Impact Area	Current Situation
Civilian Displacement	Thousands forced to flee to neighboring Sudan; camps overwhelmed.
Communication	Telephone and internet services cut off in many areas of Tigray.
Food and Agriculture	Supply routes blocked, crops destroyed, food insecurity on the rise.
Healthcare Access	Emergency medical aid and supplies severely limited.
Financial Services	Banks closed, preventing access to funds for civilians.
Migration	Sudan declared a state of emergency to accommodate refugees.

Historical Roots of Ethnic Tensions in Ethiopia

How Did Ethiopia’s Political History Lead to Ethnic Tensions?

The roots of Ethiopia’s ethnic conflict can be traced to the fall of the monarchy in 1974, followed by a military junta that ruled until 1991. During this period, groups like the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) resisted what they viewed as domination by the Amhara ethnic group. After the collapse of the Derg military regime in 1991, the TPLF-led EPRDF came to power and introduced the federal constitution of 1994, allowing ethnic groups to form their own regions, speak their own languages, and even secede from the country.

Although Tigrayans make up only about 6% of Ethiopia’s population, their influence under the EPRDF was disproportionately large, leading to resentment among other ethnic groups. Abiy’s rise to power in 2018 marked a shift, with promises to centralize authority, reduce ethnic divisions, and implement democratic reforms. However, these moves were met with resistance from the TPLF, which viewed them as undermining the federalist principles that protected minority groups.

Can Ethnic Federalism Lead to Unity or Civil War?

What Are the Pros and Cons of Ethnic Federalism in Ethiopia?

Ethnic federalism remains a controversial governance model in Ethiopia. On one hand, it allows ethnic groups to maintain autonomy, promote their languages, and manage local affairs. On the other hand, it can foster division, ethnic nationalism, and secessionist tendencies.

Advantages of Ethnic Federalism	Disadvantages of Ethnic Federalism
Cultural preservation and linguistic rights	Ethnic fragmentation and competition for power
Decentralized governance	Weak national identity and loyalty to ethnic regions
Self-determination rights	Potential for ethnic violence and civil unrest
Minority group empowerment	Risk of authoritarianism within ethnically dominated regions

Despite its intention to ensure equality, ethnic federalism in Ethiopia has led to increased friction among regions, especially when power is perceived as being unevenly distributed. As the conflict continues, the centralization of political power remains a contentious issue, revealing the fragility of the system.

How Has the Global Community Responded?

In response to the escalating conflict, international actors have expressed concern. The African Union proposed mediation efforts, which were rejected by the Ethiopian government. Humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, have emphasized the need for a ceasefire to allow aid access to affected areas. The potential for the conflict to destabilize neighboring countries, such as Sudan and Eritrea, has increased the urgency for diplomatic engagement.

Can International Influence Bring a Resolution to the Crisis?

What Role Can the United Nations and Other Global Powers Play?

While external actors cannot single-handedly resolve Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, they can play a constructive role in promoting dialogue and human rights. The United Nations could help establish peacekeeping efforts, monitor human rights violations, and propose legal frameworks to prevent ethnic discrimination. A possible solution includes encouraging Ethiopia to uphold the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, ensuring equal representation and autonomy for all ethnicities.

Multilateral collaboration between the UN, African Union, and countries like the United States or EU members could create pressure on all parties to negotiate peace. Regional stability in the Horn of Africa is vital, and without international support, the conflict may deepen and threaten broader geopolitical interests.